ELECTIONS STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL

by Jeff Barnet, Frontera NorteSur Editor

Polls Indicate Virtual Ties in Mayor's, Governor's Races

With the July 5 Mexico state elections only four days away, neither the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) nor the National Action Party (PAN) has built up a significant lead, leaving the outcome of the election in the hands of the many undecided voters throughout the state of Chihuahua.

Although some polls indicated the centrist PRI was leading in the races for mayor of Juárez and governor of Chihuahua, the margin of error in the surveys were large enough to render all contests a virtual tie going into the Sunday elections. A later poll conducted by Reforma/El Norte de Ciudad Juárez confirmed PAN contentions that the races were much closer than earlier polls indicated.

El Diario, in conjunction with the Dallas Morning News, commissioned a set of three surveys, conducted from April to June, from the independent polling agency MORI of Mexico. The final poll, released June 21 and 22, showed PRI candidate Jose Eleno Villalva leading PAN rival Gustavo Elizondo in the race for municipal president of Juárez by a margin of 38% to 29%, with 15% of the voters undecided.

The same polling agency showed PRI gubernatorial candidate Patricio Martínez leading Ramón Galindo, PAN candidate, also by nine percentage points, 42% to 33%, with 14% undecided.

PAN leaders were quick to reject the validity of the MORI polls, saying that they their own polls which showed all the races to be very close. Galindo was the first to criticize the results of a MORI of Mexico survey, saying, "The results do not correspond in any way with the data that we have. We have data that was generated from very professional studies that puts us substantially in front of the PRI candidate."

PAN Secretary General Cruz Pérez Cuellar substantiated Galindo's statement. "The numbers we have are radically different from what El Diario publishes," the Secretary General said.

Chihuahua Governor Francisco Barrio had the strongest objections to the MORI polls and claimed that "El Diario has put itself in a situation which jeopardizes its credibility."

Elizondo, PAN candidate for mayor of Juárez, was particularly skeptical of the June MORI polls which showed the PRI gaining as much as 20 points in one month in Ciudad Juárez. In May, Elizondo had held a 17-point lead over his PRI rival Eleno. In just one month, not only did the poll show Eleno gaining 10 percentage points, but indicated that PANista Elizondo had actually lost 18 points among Juárez voters. Elizondo scoffed at what he called "The PRI Miracle." He added that the polls were not scientific, "but more like an impression, like a photograph."

The same poll showed Martínez picking up 17 percentage points in the city--from 27% in May to 44% in June--while Galindo dropped four points, from 36 to 32 percent. El Diario said the statewide survey involved 1,630 persons from 67 municipalities, including 512 registered voters in Ciudad Juárez and 497 from Ciudad de Chihuahua. The margin of error was said to be plus or minus three points. Given that margin, both the mayor and governor races were theoretically three-point contests, barely favoring the PRI.

The Reforma/Norte de la Ciudad Juárez poll published June 26, however, supported the claims of PAN leaders, showing both major races to be dead heats. In the governor's race, PRI candidate Martínez held only a 38% to 35% lead over Galindo, with 14% undecided. Only seven percent supported Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) candidate Esther Orozco.

According to the survey, support for Martínez had dropped 11 points from a high of 49% in April, while the number of undecided voters increased from 6 to 14 percent. Galindo's support was essentially at the same level for April, May, and June, holding steady at 36, 34, and 35 percent respectively.

In the mayor's race, the Reforma poll completely reversed the MORI results, showing PAN candidate Elizondo leading PRIista Eleno 36% to 33%, with 14% again undecided. PRD candidate Nory Elena Yu Hernandez was favored by nine percent of the voters.

The Reforma polls, like the MORI polls, also held a margin of error of plus or minus three points. Theoretically, then, it is possible that both Eleno and Martínez trail their PAN rivals going into Sunday's elections.

Summary of the 1998 Campaigns

Juárez newspaper coverage of the campaigns focused heavily on the polls and, in particular, the guerra sucia, or war of words. An informal count of front-page articles for the month of June showed coverage of the guerra sucia running six to seven times that of other campaign issues. The papers did run discussions of party platforms on inside pages, and El Diario devoted its Sunday Siete Dias supplements to some campaign issues, such as education.

MORI of Mexico polled voters in Ciudad Juárez and throughout the state of Chihuahua regarding their major concerns for the candidates. In the poll released June 23, Juárenses said they were most concerned about crime, public services, an increase in salaries, an end to corruption, and better education. Voters throughout the state were less concerned about crime and corruption--they listed fulfilling campaign promises, giving aid to all, and an increase in salaries as their top three concerns.

In general, the 1998 campaign had less to do with specific issues that it did with the reputation of the major two parties, the PRI and the PAN, as a whole. From the beginning, PAN propaganda attempted to paint a portrait of the PRI as "the same old PRI," noted for corruption and stealing elections. PRI candidates, however, repeatedly characterized the PAN as inefficient, incapable, and currently just as corrupt as the PRI had been at its worst under Carlos Salinas. The question voters seemed to be asked was, "Which party do you think is more corrupt and less capable of dealing with Chihuahua's problems?"

A June 10 mayor's debate, for example, degenerated into a series of attacks and denunciations, with PAN candidate Elizondo on the offensive against what El Diario called "a serene José Eleno." Nevertheless, both candidates launched specific attacks against the corrupt and inefficient histories of the other's party, without reverting to personal character assassination. Strangely, Elizondo also attacked PRD candidate Nora Elena Yu for her party's role in the 1968 Mexico City massacre. Yu responded that the PRD did not exist until 1988.

Yu was also the target of further attacks, from Workers' Party (PT) candidate Jesus Eduardo Marshall Ojeda, who made the minor third party "his favorite target of continous attacks."

Ecological Green Party (PVEM) candidate Hugo Caesar Morales Carrasco spent his limited time outlining his solutions to the city's problems, including a proposal to trim the municipal bureaucracy by 30 percent.

The substance of an earlier governor's debate was not much different, with PANista Galindo attacking PRI corruption. PRI candidate Martínez responded by raising the issue of crime and public insecurity under the PAN government. According to a report in El Diario, this response caused Galindo to "lose control," then confused him so much that "he did not understand the second round question, now on the economy."

Candidates from the PRD, PT, and PVEM used their time to call Martínez and Galindo to "civility," and championed their own parties as an alternative to "inefficiency and corruption." Unlike the mayor's debate, the minor parties did not attack each other.

Early campaign battles centered on spending. The PAN initiated the debate, and earned a kind of victory when the PRI admitted that it spent 130,000 pesos a day on its Chihuahua campaigns, a number significantly higher than the PAN's 95,000 pesos per day, but not a figure that caused any stir among the public. The PRI countered by charging that the PAN was getting free, and illegal, advertising through the state government, an accusation which was later taken up by the State Congress.

Galindo scored the first and really only major policy initiative on June 10 by unveiling a $60 million dollar urban development program for Ciudad Juárez, including several major road improvements and another water treatment plant.

The governor's campaign was derailed by the guerra sucia, during which Galindo and Governor Barrio were preoccupied with PRIista charges of corruption, favoritism, inability to handle crime, and the earlier denunciation of the use of state "social communication" monies for what opponents said was obvious PAN campaign propaganda. In addition, the PAN government was involved in securing an extension to its obligation to respond to the National Commission for Human Rights (CNDH) recommendation-report on the issue of violence against women in Juárez. Although the state and municipal succeeded in gaining an extension until July 10, thus avoiding a messy pre-election public debate, Galindo and Barrio spent several days answering attacks from PRI leaders and citizens' groups.

Martínez, for his part, after getting into hot water in his war of words with Barrio, disappeared from the front pages for several weeks and later appeared in small sidebars in the inside pages, campaigning in small Chihuahuan towns and usually wearing a cowboy hat and riding a horse.

Meanwhile, candidates for the municipal presidency (mayorship) of Ciudad Juárez made a serious attempt to respond to the number one issue named by Juárenses, crime and public insecurity. In special newspaper report in El Norte de Ciudad Juárez, the five candidates outlined their detailed security plans.

Elizondo suggested that the city create "an autonomous organization" he called "The Municipal Institute of Security and Protection." The Institute would have seven directors with "prestigious salaries" and the power to direct preventitive police action. In particular, PANista Elizondo felt the Institute should investigate the connection between drugtrafficking and the federal, PRI-controlled government.

PRI candidate Eleno said he would professionalize the city police agency, increasing both salaries and opportunities for officers to advance in a career system. One such advance, he suggested, might be a "Committee for Vigilance" which would coordinate munipal police efforts throughout the city. Eleno said he would also increase the number of agents and the quality of their equipment. Of many ideas he had for better protection for citizens was "an emergency telephone system similar to 911 in America."

Nora Elena Yu, PRD candidate, suggested a detailed three-tiered police agency structure, with the municipal police divided into operating, administrative, and planning and analysis coordinators. Workers' Party standard-bearer Eduardo Marischal echoed Eleno's call for a better paid, more professional police agency. Ecological Green Party (PVEM) candidate Cesar Morales said he would begin to address the problem by re-organizing the police department, creating an instructional institute within the agency responsible for professional training.

Closing Rallies

The 1998 campaign came to a dramatic conclusion with large rallies in Juárez and Chihuahua City, for the PRI and the PAN, respectively, on June 29, the last full day for campaigning.

Martínez, in his speech before thousands of supporters inside the Ciudad Juárez bullring, emphasized that his first priority would be to fight crime and poverty. "I will apply the law with effectiveness and honesty and guard the women of Juárez, the mothers of families, so that they can sleep with tranquillity," he said. "I vow to face the vice that threatens the many children of this great Juárense family. We are going to ignite the love of man to fellow man, to family values . . . We will have a fresh start in Juárez, without the horror of the crimes we have seen in the last six years."

Earlier speeches by mayoral candidate Eleno and state diputado (representative) candidate Astrid González atacked the PAN. González acknowledged that the PRI "was the party of Carlos Salinas Gortari in the past, but the true son of Salinismo is Francisco Barrio." The comparison to Salinas, currently in exile in Ireland and in disgrace after accusations that he and his brother Raul Salinas made off with hundreds of millions of dollars, was a final attempt to raise of the spectre of corruption on the part of the PAN governor and his brother Federico, an accusation made repeatedly by Martínez throughout the campaign.

Meanwhile, in Chihuahua City, Ramón Galindo closed his campaign with the support of Barrio and fellow PAN governor Vicente Fox of Guanajuato. The gubernatorial candidate centered his closing speech on economic and education issues. The PRI had insinuated in the closing days of the campaign that the PAN intended to end free education, a charge which Galindo vehemently denied. His most forceful words were spent on attacking the national PRI government, especially "confused President Zedillo, who has lost control of the country and does not where he is going." Galindo stressed the PRI's mismanagement of the economy, and promised to usher in a stronger Chihuahua "that will help all of Mexico."

The task of addressing the problem of crime in Juárez fell to mayoral candidate Elizondo, who broadly stated that all PANistas would "join in the fight for security."

The finishing touch of the 1998 Chihuahua political campaign, however, was provided by Governor Barrio, who blamed Patricio Martínez and PRI leaders "for starting a strategy to polarize and confuse Chihuahuense society, and in the process staining the image of both state and municipal government."

The reference to the guerra sucia was a logical conclusion to el lodamiento (mudslinging) endured by Chihuahua citizens for over five weeks. The question of which party is more mudstained, however, will be answered July 5.

Sources: El Diario, El Norte de Ciudad Juárez