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Frontera
NorteSur
July 2000 |
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Claudia Vallejo, FNS
Writer
The ever-changing results of the
polls, the political campaigns by the three presidential candidates
in Cd. Juárez, clashes between the PRI and PAN supporters,
and the political disputes between the governor of Chihuahua and
the mayor of Cd. Juárez marked June's political scene.
The 2000 Mexican elections
have already made history. For the first time, there exists the
possibility of bringing down Mexico's long ruling party. The Institutional
Revolutionary Party (PRI) has handpicked the president from its
own ranks since 1929. However, two opposition candidates are contending
for the presidency in the upcoming elections, and one of them,
Vicente Fox of the National Action Party (PAN), has a chance of
winning.
The current election may prove that Mexico is on the road to democracy,
a path that began in 1988 when Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas
of the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD), which has combined
with several smaller parties to form the Alianza por Mexico or
Alliance for Mexico, allegedly lost the presidency because of
fraud. Opposition parties hold the governorships and city governments
of 11 of Mexico's 32 states. It is also expected that a pluralist
Congress will result from these elections in which a president,
but also senators, some governors, and representatives of the
Chamber of Deputies will be chosen.
Political analysts are anticipating that the 500 seats in the
Chamber of Deputies and the 128 seats in the Senate will be shared
by the three main different political parties. Francisco Labastida,
the PRI candidate for president, admitted during a rally organized
at Cd. Juárez on June 13 that "the PRI won't have
the majority in the Mexican Congress."
Candidates for the Mexican Senate from Cd. Juárez, Javier
Corral Jurado (PAN) and Gustavo de la Rosa Hickerson (PRI), told
El Norte on May 26 that only after this election would
the real role of senators be known. "PRIistas' legislators
work as if they were the president's slaves, they even have a
well known saying in the Senate: `We are with you, Mr. President,
even if you are disgraced,'" said Corral.
"And the Winner is?"
Since 1929, the presidency and the federal bureaucracy has been
ruled by the PRI. It remains to be seen if 71 years of one-party
rule will come to an end this Sunday.
Polls have gone back and forth showing that there is a tight race
between Vicente Fox of the PAN, which has joined with the Mexican
Green Party to form the Alianza por el Cambio or Alliance for
Change, and Francisco Labastida, but neither of them has ever
earned the support of a majority of voters. The latest poll done
by the MUND Opinion Services of México showed Labastida
with 34%, Fox 33%, and Cárdenas 25% of the vote nationwide.
Earlier polls have shown Fox ahead by 6 points, and Labastida
ahead by 8 points. Whoever wins this Sunday will face a devaluated
currency and high rates of crime and unemployment.
On May 27, a day after the three candidates held a national televised
debate, a poll published by El Diario indicated that in
Cd. Juárez 56.4% of the eligible voters favored Fox, 28.2%
preferred Labastida, and only 15.4% Cárdenas. A survey
conducted by the University of Chihuahua (UACh), during the first
week of May, showed that population's preference for Fox in this
Northern state was 35.2%, while the PRI's candidate occupied a
second place with 28.1%. Far behind was Cárdenas (4.4%).
However, a different poll done by a consultant company in Cd.
Juárez and reproduced by El Diario on June 14, showed
that Labastida was leading the race with 54.88% of the votes,
followed by Fox with 38.88.
Polls cannot predict who the next president of Mexico will be.
However, one thing is certain: the current elections will become
one of the most internationally observed in Mexican history. The
Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) in Mexico has approved the presence
of 476 foreign observers. In Cd. Juárez alone, it is estimated
that there will be 119 observers during election day.
According to statistics in El Norte on June 2, close to
forty million Mexicans will go to the polls during Sunday's elections
and 752,675 people are expected to vote in Juárez.
Approximately 200,000 Mexican citizens living in the United States
will travel to border towns to cast their votes. According to
IFE, there are in the US more than 1.5 million Mexican citizens
who are eligible to vote. In fact, during the last month of the
campaign, presidential candidates promoted their political programs
on employment, immigration and women's rights in Cd. Juárez.
Cárdenas was there on June 6, Labastida on June 13, and
Fox chose to close his campaign for the state of Chihuahua in
this border city on June 25.
Mexican citizens living in the US can travel to their homeland
to vote in the July 2 presidential contest if they possess valid
voter credentials. They can cast their ballots either in their
hometowns or at any of the special polling stations installed
along the border region. However, Mexican electorate law will
only provide 75,000 ballots, which may discourage some potential
voters from making the trip to the border. "There is too
much at stake to travel to the border and find out that, guess
what? They don't have ballots," said a Mexican immigrant
interviewed in El Paso Times.
A law forbidding the sale, distribution, and consumption of alcohol
will be implemented in Cd. Juárez as well in the entire
Mexican territory. This measure, called "Ley Seca" or
"Dry Law," starts June 30 after midnight and ends July
3 at 3 p.m.
Polling stations close at 6 p.m. on July 2 and the IFE will give
the first partial electoral results at 11:30 p.m. However, Fox's
advisors warn that Televisa, which is a national TV station controlled
by the PRI, plans to announce the presidential winner's name at
8 p.m., based on a poll that can be either faked or manipulated,
they said.
Protests Feared
Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, PRD's candidate, anticipated
protests if electoral results are not respected this time. In
1988, Cárdenas was virtually the winner, but after a "computer
malfunction" shut down the voting cast system, Carlos Salinas,
PRI's, candidate, was announced to be the new president of Mexico.
Fox also warned about possible disturbances if Labastida defeats
him by a small margin.
Ernesto Zedillo, current president of Mexico, promised a clean
election. "The executive branch is not involved at all in
the organization of the electoral process," said Zedillo.
Reforms were made to the electoral system with the purpose of
creating fair conditions. This is the first time that an election
is run by an independent electoral agency.
However, irregularities are still
happening, according to opposition parties. The PRI is trying
to influence people through the use of traditional methods such
as exchanging food for votes and bribing voters with social programs,
a practice that frequently occurs in rural areas. "The PRI
keeps buying and coercing the vote through social programs such
as Progresa, Procampo and others," said Howard Campbell,
anthropologist at the University of Texas at El Paso June 9.
Political Fights
Clashes between supporters of the PRI and the PAN have been frequent
political news in Cd. Juárez during June. Supporters from
both parties have accused each other of destroying political propaganda
and obstructing political campaigns. On June 12, four people were
hospitalized after a confrontation between PAN and PRI supporters
in Chihuahua City.
Patricio Martinez, PRI governor of Chihuahua, and Gustavo Elizondo,
PAN mayor of Cd. Juárez, have also been accused of using
their offices for political purposes. IFE's advisors requested
that Martínez and Elizondo both suspend the promotion of
their social programs 30 days before elections. But Martinez said,
"We are doing the same thing that we have always done, because
it is the state's custom to inform people about our work."
Elizondo explained that, "Juárenses have the right
to know what is done with the municipal resources."
Anapra: The political battlefield
Anapra, one of the poorest neighborhoods of Cd. Juárez,
became the electoral battlefield where PRI and PAN candidates
and supporters and even Chihuahua's governor and Juarez's mayor
have engaged in several disputes.
Governor Martínez, signed an agreement on June 10 legalizing
Anapra, a land that has been occupied over 25 years. This agreement
gives right to land to more than 25 families living in Anapra.
Additionally, the governor promised energy, water, sewage, and
construction of schools and streets.
Municipal officials reacted against this deal, in which the local
administration was not invited to participate, and accused Martínez
of political opportunism. However, Mayor Elizondo told El Diario
that "even though the municipal government was excluded,
I welcome any agreement that would benefit the residents of Anapra."
Elizondo also implemented a social project a month before elections.
His administration was distributing water in Anapra through a
mechanism of "aguabonos" or tickets that allowed residents
to receive water. Elizondo himself handed out the tickets. This
action raised complaints and on June 16, Elizondo decided to suspend
this program.
In an effort to solve Anapra's water problem, Elizondo proposed
to import water from Sunland Park, New Mexico. According to El
Norte, the governor criticized Elizondo's proposal and said
that that was a "purely political move." Martínez
explained that this project did not have any real possibility
of taking place since international accords were necessary.
Anapra's residents wondered if all these efforts by the state
and the municipal governments to develop the neighborhood are
because of election time. The legalization of Anapra's land and
the distribution of potable water occurred a month before election
day. There has not been water in Anapra for 25 years and its land
has been occupied for the same length. "Water is indispensable
here. We will vote for a certain candidate, but then they will
forget about us," said one resident of Anapra.
Source: El Diario, El Norte, and El Paso Times